ONE MONTH DOES NOT A MARKET MAKE - But January’s a Good Start

Stats for January 2016. If you'd like more local, neighbourhood specific numbers, please feel free to give me a call! (204) 990-3467, or email, lukevberg@gmail.com

WinnipegREALTORS® was founded as The Winnipeg Real Estate Exchange in 1903 – and one of the founding Objects of the Corporation was to“… compile, record and publish statistics and acquire and distribute information respecting the real estate … business of its Members …”. So we’ve been looking at and interpreting market activity and statistics for 113 years.

WINNIPEG – It has often been said that one month does not a market make. Yet here it is … January 2016 … and we only have one month to look at … so January is the market! And not to disappoint, the activity in the first 31 days does give us a lot to evaluate.

Here’s how the New Year kicked off …

In terms of inventory, we have more listings available this January for buyers than we’ve had for the past 5 Januarys. More supply starts to change the sellers’ markets we’ve experienced since 2003/4 and brings more balance to the marketplace. Just recently we’ve seen a reduction in the number of multiple offers and sales over list price that became the norm in the sellers’ markets. Buyers can again exercise more due diligence by viewing more properties and making offers conditional on financing or home inspections than at the height of the market where demand was always exceeding supply.

At the end of January there were 3,406 listings available for viewing … up over 60% from the 2,125 listings available for sale in 2011.

There were 1,519 listings entered into the MLS® system in January, just 36 fewer than last January. But those 1,500 plus listings were 22% more than in January 2014 and 30% more than 2013!

And sales held their own at 571, 17 fewer than last January, but 6 more than 2014. One month is just too small a sample to see trends or make conclusions … but it appears that the market in Winnipeg remains healthy.

Dollar volume was $149 million this year, off 1.75% from last January’s $152 million … but up over January’s total for 2011 through 2014 inclusive.

“The numbers for January appear to reflect the Association’s forecast breakfast projections presented on January 27^th. Despite some of the negative headlines we see from national organizations trying to figure out trends and movements based on an over-weight emphasis on the Vancouvers, Torontos and Calgarys … in Winnipeg we tend to be less exposed to speculative influences like foreign investors and an economy based on a single resource like oil. So when you see headlines implying Winnipeg’s market is high risk or shows strong indications of problematic conditions … we should remember that real estate is local. The activity you see in our local MLS® stats can be relied upon.” said Stewart Elston, WinnipegREALTORS® 2016 President.

The forecast breakfast referenced by Elston showed that last year’s predictions were bang on and this year’s forecast continues to see the glass as half full.

Referring to the forecast, Elston states that “… with interest rates remaining at historical lows and very positive predictions from other analysts suggesting that everything from employment and confidence levels in Winnipeg and Manitoba are high, immigration is encouraging, and the province’s GDP and overall economy are all favourable … we can’t see any reason to predict that the local real estate market will be anything but stable.”

The most active price ranges in the Winnipeg’s single family residential market as recorded on the MLS® for January were between $200,000 and $249,999 and between $250,000 and $299,999, which combined accounted for 39% of sales. The average number of days on the market was 44 compared to 41 in 2015.

The most active price ranges in the condominium market were between $150,000 and $199,999 at 26%, which was the same percentage as sales between $250,000 and $299,999. But there were only 69 condo sales in January and this is such a small sample that no conclusions can yet be formulated. Average days on the market for condominiums came in at 62 days, on average 16 days longer than last year.

At the forecast breakfast, Association Market Analyst Peter Squire predicted that home sales through the MLS® will increase from 1 to 3% in 2016; home prices will rise from 0 to 2%; condo prices will be up the same 0 to 2%; and MLS® dollar volume will increase from 1 to 3%.

Established in 1903, WinnipegREALTORS® is a professional association representing over 1,850 real estate brokers, salespeople, appraisers, and financial members active in the Greater Winnipeg Area real estate market.  Its REALTOR® members adhere to a strict code of ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) designed exclusively for REALTORS®. WinnipegREALTORS® serves its members by promoting the benefits of an organized real estate profession.  REALTOR®, MLS® and Multiple Listing Service® are trademarks owned and controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association and are used under licence.

REALTOR: Salesperson...Or Something Else?

Let me start by telling you what this isn’t. This is not an attack on sales

people, or the sales industry. What this is, is a look at what exactly your REALTOR is, what they do for you, and whether or not that makes them a salesperson, or something else entirely. I believe a REALTOR is not a salesperson, but a facilitator.

First, let’s look at public perception of “sales people”. It’s a fact that the public at

large does not have a very forgiving picture of anyone called a “salesperson”. In studies

about trusted professions, sales professions scored very low on the trust scale.

REALTORs included. People hear “sales” and immediately see a man (or woman) in a

cheap suit, with a slimy smile on their face, looking to make a quick buck by swindling

the next person lucky enough to walk through the door. Whether this is a fair

assessment or not in most sales industries is up for debate. However, I feel it’s even

less fair in the world of Real Estate sales. Wait a minute, you say, I’m biased. Yes, I am. But I believe what I’m going to say here will back up that bias. Are there bad REALTORs? Of course. Just like there are bad car-sales people. But there are also good ones. So, lets focus on how the industry SHOULD be.

Now, let’s look at the actual definition of these words, as given by Merriam Webster.

Salesperson: A person whose job it is it sell things.

Facilitator: To help (something) run more smoothy and effectively.

Two very different definitions, to be sure. But how does this apply to your

REALTOR, as compared to other “sales” industries? To figure that out, we need to look

a little deeper at these two terms. A salesperson sells things. They are stationary. Car

sales people sell cars. You go to the dealership, looking for a car, which is “owned” by

the dealership. They sell you their product. You go to the mall to buy clothes. Walk into

the store, the salespeople help you find the right product that THEY are selling. These

people get paid to sell their own products. A good one will still do a good job getting

you what you need. not what they want you buy. But in the end, they are selling their

own thing, and want you to buy it from them, not someone else.

It may seem like a subtle difference, but stick with me here, as we now take a

look at what your REALTOR will do for you. You can’t just go to the REALTOR’s office

and view their product. You have to actively go out and look at various homes, with your

REALTOR’s help. The product is not (generally) OWNED by the REALTOR. They are

not selling their own product. They are HELPING you find a product, owned by

someone else, and HELPING to make the sales process run more smoothly and

effectively. In so many ways. Helping you with the paperwork. Connecting you with the

other businesses you’ll work with. Working in YOUR best interest. Sounds a lot more

like the definition of Facilitator than Salesperson!

You can even look at how we get paid, as compared to other sales. Yes, I know that many other sales positions are paid on commission, and therefore are directly tied to the amount you spend. But it’s not too many other industries where, if the agent is doing his job properly, when working with a buyer will actively TRY to make LESS

money, by getting the client (not customer! Another small, but important difference) a

lower price on the product. While on the selling side, it is true that the more you get for the home, the more the REALTOR will get paid. But at the same time, if they convince  you to price to high, that your home doesn’t sell, they’ve hurt themselves even worse, because you will now give a bad review. They still work for your best interest, not their own, and they still help to connect you with all the serivces you’ll need.

Please do not read this as an indictment of salespeople, or sales industries at

large. I, personally, have had many great experiences with sales people that are

wonderful people, and really went out of their way for me.

My point is only that REALTORs are not salespeople, they are in a different

industry. A facilitating industry. And really, when it comes to what is likely the biggest, most important purchase you will ever make, wouldn’t you like to have someone like that on your side?